A simulation approach to the study of human fertility by Gigi Santow (auth.)

By Gigi Santow (auth.)

This publication is an amended and slightly shorter model of my doctoral thesis which I submitted to the Australian nationwide collage in 1976, and therefore edited on the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute in 1977. The paintings falls obviously into components. the 1st is worried with the development and validation of a version, and the second one with its program as an experimental instrument. within the first half, comprising Chapters One to 4, an exam of old and modern versions of inhabitants progress ended in the choice to review alterations in fertility through a organic micro simulation version. the explanations assisting the alternative of one of these version have been mentioned, and a seek of the literature produced the knowledge for use as version enter. the results of various the enter have been tested after which the version output was once established opposed to Hutterite facts. the most emphasis of the second one a part of the paintings, comprising Chapters 5 to Seven, used to be the checking out of the influence at the fertility of 1 society of adaptations within the period of the publish partum interval of non-susceptibility to notion, and within the point of toddler and baby mortality. additional simulations have been played to find the impression on fertility of using birth control to realize various kinfolk sizes, either with and with out the extra impression of little one and baby mortality.

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Extra resources for A simulation approach to the study of human fertility

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500) 20 o "15 o .. 10 . . 1. 2. 5 per cent by age 25 years, 7 per cent by age 30, 11 per cent by 35, 33 per cent by 40, 87 per cent by 45, and all by the age of 50. Were this progressive sterility to be incorporated into the simulation it would indeed be possible for a woman to bear only two or three children, and then to become sterile. As it is, once a woman in the simulation has passed the marriage barrier and been deemed fully fecund, it is only the repeated chance occurrence of long periods before conception which can prevent her from producing a large number of children.

The greater suitability of micro models than macro models in many studies is demonstrated in the criticism by Hyrenius (1973) of the population sector of the report of the Club of Rome, which sought to project the world population to the year 2100: ... a macro-model often obscures and/or distorts important relations. ) may from many aspects appear meaningless, and wide and important diversities among subfactors tend to disappear. the effects of pollution on death rate, of material level on birth rate ...

The mode was 28 days, occurring in 15 per cent of 7. See also Feeney (1972) and Pollard (1969). 8. See Henry (1972), p. 4. 9. See Burch, Macisco and Parker (1967). 28 THE MODEL cases. Treloar et al (1%7) were sceptical of some data on lengths of cycles which were obtained through medical histories since they felt that many women said they menstruated every 28 days not because this was exactly the case, but through 'a conviction of personal normality'. Despite this restriction it was reported that women in the sample in the 'middle life' of menstrual experience had a median length of from 26 to 28 days.

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